The College Degree as Investment,

Risk, and Social Promise

Each year, I return to the village in central Nigeria where I grew up—a place that still lacks electricity and running water. Neither of my parents received a single day of formal education. My father could not write his name or speak a single sentence in English, but he believed fiercely that his son’s future could, and must, extend beyond the boundaries of our village. Even after I received my bachelor's degree, he insisted I continue going to school “until there is no more school.” That conviction eventually carried me to Canada for graduate study in a country I had never seen before, armed with little more than potential and faith in education’s transformative power.

My journey is not unique. Across America, students arrive at universities carrying similar hopes: to transcend circumstance, create opportunities where none existed before, and build a future larger than the one they inherited. At Illinois State University, I hear these aspirations every day. Universities are not merely places that confer degrees; they are engines of social mobility, civic engagement, and human potential.

“Is a college degree really worth it?”

This question provokes considerable passion because for many families, a college degree is both an investment risk and a social promise. Indeed, it’s their first significant wager on the possibility of a different and better life.

The economic case for college remains compelling. The New York Fed [1] forecasts a 12.5 percent return for the typical graduate in 2024, driven by an estimated $32,000 annual wage advantage over individuals with only a high school diploma. Research from the Brookings Institution [2] confirms that this wage gap is causal, not merely correlational, and reveals additional advantages, including better health, greater civic participation, increased adaptability, and greater resilience during periods of unemployment. Likewise, summaries from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, based on earlier Federal Reserve studies [3], consistently show that those with a bachelor’s degree tend to earn considerably more over their careers, although the specific benefit varies by major.

Some people remain unconvinced by these arguments and evidence for two main reasons. First, every investment, no matter how appealing or valuable, has a cost. Thus, as the cost of a degree has risen, many families increasingly question whether the return justifies the cost. Additionally, student debt driven by rising tuition, delayed earnings, and uncertain outcomes have changed how families analyze a degree’s net worth. Most skeptics do not argue that college lacks value altogether; they question whether the investment remains worthwhile at its current cost and level of risk. Second, many families today believe that a college degree is less essential for a good job than it was twenty years ago. The key question becomes: Is college still a good investment at its current cost when alternatives such as trades, vocational training, or apprenticeships can offer similar earning potential with less risk? This is a valid concern, especially since the New York Fed’s analysis [3] suggests over a quarter of graduates may not receive a strong return on their investment. Additionally, almost 40% of students who start college or pursue a certificate don't reach their goals after six or eight years, often burdened by heavy debt and unmet hopes. As professionals and leaders in higher education, we must address these issues directly to preserve our credibility and the integrity of the industry.

Perspective Matters

American colleges now face the urgent need to prove their value—something once taken for granted. They typically rely on three key assertions: that alumni earn significantly higher incomes, that college education builds citizenship and character, and that prestige opens doors. While these claims are factually correct, they often sound vague and disconnected to families and students who are asking a crucial, immediate question: "Will college pay off for me soon enough, with this debt, at this institution, in this major?" This disconnect exposes a crucial gap between institutional messaging and the tangible outcomes families desperately need to make informed, confident decisions about their futures.

International Parallels

As an immigrant and former international student, I instinctively compare international contexts to better understand the issues. While similar debates occur across advanced economies, their intensity varies. Evidence indicates that in most industrialized countries, graduates with a bachelor’s degree earn significantly more than those with only upper-secondary education—39% more for bachelor's degrees and 83% more for those with master’s or doctoral degrees [4]. However, public discussions and concerns in the United Kingdom and Australia closely resemble those in the United States, as students in these countries graduate with substantial visible debt, prompting policymakers to openly question whether degrees truly meet labor market demands. Conversely, in Germany [5], apprenticeships remain a common and respected pathway into skilled employment, making a degree just one of several viable options for achieving a middle-income lifestyle. France and Japan continue to debate [6] whether higher education aligns with labor market needs, but lower or standardized public tuition lessens fears of falling into a “debt trap." Consequently, in these countries, obtaining a college degree entails less risk, and college is not an all-or-nothing endeavor.

What Skeptics Expect—and What Colleges Must Deliver

Skeptics of college degrees often emphasize the importance of practical education—valuing transparency in costs, low debt, marketable skills, relevant experience, timely graduation, and solid evidence that graduates find meaningful employment. While these concerns are valid, focusing solely on transactional aspects risks overlooking the profound, transformative power of education—the capacity to inspire lifelong growth and change. As educators, we must meet students and parents with honesty and empathy. It’s not enough to say, "Our education is a long-term investment—take it or leave it." Instead, we must help families understand how to minimize risk in that investment by openly sharing transparent data on costs, time to graduation, student debt, post-graduation earnings, underemployment, and access to internships or licensing opportunities.

Alongside this transparency, we must also foster stronger partnerships with employers, expand paid work-integrated learning, develop stackable, flexible credentials, improve transfer pathways, and enhance early-career guidance.

"The value of higher education must be measurable in outcomes but never limited to them."
Aondover Tarhule, Ph.D.

Higher Education’s Enduring Promise

Far from that tiny village in Nigeria where my father first sparked my dreams with little more than hope and imagination, I have the honor to lead Illinois State University, a public Carnegie-classified R2 (High Research) university where thousands of students come to pursue the same possibility: not simply a credential, but a transformed future. Our goal is to prepare them not just for the jobs of the past or even present, but for the unpredictable, ever-changing future—equipping them to grow, transform, and succeed in ways we can only begin to imagine. The value of higher education must be measurable in outcomes but never limited to them.

The hope my father placed in education decades ago continues to live on through students both at Illinois State and back in my home village, expanding what they believe is possible for their lives, their families, and their communities. That is the enduring promise of higher education and the reason that my wife and I have invested in the tiny village where I grew up—now home to the only rural elementary school in the state, powered 24 hours a day by solar energy and equipped with computers, a library, and unique teaching tools. We believe that among its four hundred students could be future college presidents, inventors, artists, and scholars.

My father believed education could carry his son beyond the limits of our village. This belief in limitless potential, even when it seems beyond reach today, coupled with a clear pathway to immediate impact, must become the guiding light for higher education. Higher education must continue to prove that such a belief is still justified—not only for students from rural Nigeria or similar climes, but for every student seeking a greater future. This is the vision I embrace as a university president—empowering lives, transforming communities, and shaping a better future for all.

This content was paid for and created by Illinois State University. The editorial staff of The Chronicle had no role in its preparation. Find out more about paid content.